Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration.

How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences

Epigenome-wide association study of lung function level and its change

Previous reports link differential DNA methylation (DNAme) to environmental exposures that are associated with lung function. Direct evidence on lung function DNAme is, however, limited. We undertook an agnostic epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) on pre-bronchodilation lung function and its change in adults. In a discovery-replication EWAS design, DNAme in blood and spirometry were measured twice, 6-15 years apart, in the same participants of three adult population-based discovery cohorts (n=2043). Associated DNAme markers (p EWAS signals were enriched for smoking-related DNAme. We replicated 57 lung function DNAme markers in adult, but not childhood samples, all previously associated with smoking. Markers not previously associated with smoking failed replication. cg05575921 (AHRR (aryl hydrocarbon receptor repressor)) showed the statistically most significant association with cross-sectional lung function (FEV1/FVC: pdiscovery=3.96x10(-21) and pcombined=7.22x10(-50)). A score combining 10 DNAme markers previously reported to mediate the effect of smoking on lung function was associated with lung function (FEV1/FVC: p=2.65x10(-20)). Our results reveal that lung function-associated methylation signals in adults are predominantly smoking related, and possibly of clinical utility in identifying poor lung function and accelerated decline. Larger studies with more repeat time-points are needed to identify lung function DNAme in never-smokers and in children.Peer reviewe

Genome sequencing reveals Zika virus diversity and spread in the Americas

Although the recent Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas and its link to birth defects have attracted a great deal of attention, much remains unknown about ZIKV disease epidemiology and ZIKV evolution, in part owing to a lack of genomic data. Here we address this gap in knowledge by using multiple sequencing approaches to generate 110 ZIKV genomes from clinical and mosquito samples from 10 countries and territories, greatly expanding the observed viral genetic diversity from this outbreak. We analysed the timing and patterns of introductions into distinct geographic regions; our phylogenetic evidence suggests rapid expansion of the outbreak in Brazil and multiple introductions of outbreak strains into Puerto Rico, Honduras, Colombia, other Caribbean islands, and the continental United States. We find that ZIKV circulated undetected in multiple regions for many months before the first locally transmitted cases were confirmed, highlighting the importance of surveillance of viral infections. We identify mutations with possible functional implications for ZIKV biology and pathogenesis, as well as those that might be relevant to the effectiveness of diagnostic tests

Homotypic fusion of ER membranes requires the dynamin-like GTPase Atlastin

Establishment and maintenance of proper architecture is essential for endoplasmic reticulum (ER) function. Homotypic membrane fusion is required for ER biogenesis and maintenance, and has been shown to depend on GTP hydrolysis. Here we demonstrate that Drosophila Atlastin—the fly homologue of the mammalian GTPase atlastin 1 involved in hereditary spastic paraplegia—localizes on ER membranes and that its loss causes ER fragmentation. Drosophila Atlastin embedded in distinct membranes has the ability to form trans-oligomeric complexes and its overexpression induces enlargement of ER profiles, consistent with excessive fusion of ER membranes. In vitro experiments confirm that Atlastin autonomously drives membrane fusion in a GTP-dependent fashion. In contrast, GTPase-deficient Atlastin is inactive, unable to form trans-oligomeric complexes owing to failure to self-associate, and incapable of promoting fusion in vitro. These results demonstrate that Atlastin mediates membrane tethering and fusion and strongly suggest that it is the GTPase activity that is required for ER homotypic fusion